Bigger Baskets Keep Sales Flat as EOFY Momentum
Fades and School Holidays Shift Earlier
Monthly KRI Summary
Discover key insights in the latest Australian Kepler Retail Market Index for July 2026.
Comparison Period: The following insights are based on comparing the four-week retail month of July this year (29th June – 26th July 2026) to the same period last year (30th June – 27th July 2025).
- School holiday timing also reshaped the month. Victoria’s winter break shifted almost a week earlier this year (27th of June – 12th of July, versus 5th – 20th of July last year), pulling holiday traffic into the first half of the retail month and leaving softer year-on-year comparisons in the second half of the month, when last year’s Victorian school holidays were still running
- The month opened strongly as EOFY clearance activity spilled into the first week of the retail month, with momentum moderated over the remainder of July. Customers continued to shop with purpose, consolidating spend into fewer but larger purchases, with promotions and perceived value continuing to influence purchasing decisions
- With no RBA Board meeting scheduled in July, the cash rate remained at its decade high of 4.35% ahead of the August decision. Ongoing global uncertainty and a still-elevated cash rate kept households selective in their spending throughout the month
- Consumer sentiment softened through July, unwinding June’s late-month improvement and returning to levels last seen in mid-June
Foot Traffic Trends:
- Passer-by traffic returned to growth, up +0.6% YoY in July, ahead of the three-month average of -0.8% YoY. Earlier Victorian and Queensland school holidays concentrated shopper activity in the first half of the month, more than offsetting softer comparisons once students returned to school
- In-store traffic improved to -0.9% YoY in July, improving on June’s result and performing slightly better than the three-month average (-1.6% YoY). Visits were strongest over the school holiday-driven opening weeks, softening from mid-month as the earlier holiday timing unwound
Sales Conversion Performance:
- Sales conversion improved through the second half of the month, following an early dip, when holiday crowds and EOFY bargain hunting lifted browsing traffic. Despite this improvement, July sales conversion finished down -1.1% YoY, the first monthly decline since April and below the three-month average (+1.3% YoY)
Average Transaction Values (ATVs):
- Average transaction values rose by +2.0% YoY in July, the strongest monthly growth since March and well above the three-month average of +0.6% YoY. With transactions down -2.0% YoY, customers continued to consolidate their spending into fewer, larger baskets, likely supported by mid-year promotions on bigger-ticket winter purchases
Sales Performance:
- Overall sales were broadly flat (-0.1% YoY) in July despite fewer transactions and softer conversion. Larger baskets helped offset these declines, with the strongest sales performance occurring during the final week of the EOFY promotional period before easing over the remainder of the retail month. Customers continued to spend with purpose, making fewer purchases but spending more per transaction
Where the Opportunity is:
- Shoppers are still showing up and still spending – passer-by traffic returned to growth (+0.6% YoY) and average transaction values had their strongest month since March (+2.0% YoY). Retailers that continue to emphasise value through confident merchandising of higher-value items are well placed to capitalise on this behaviour
- The earlier school holidays concentrated shopper activity into the first half of the month – a pattern retailers can plan for by aligning staffing levels and inventory with expected peak trading periods
- With customers consolidating spend into fewer, larger baskets, there’s a clear opening to grow average order value further through bundling,
add-on offers on the shop floor and at the point of sale – customers are already demonstrating a willingness to spend more per visit - Looking ahead, if interest rates remain unchanged following the August RBA meeting, retailers are likely to see continued value-conscious purchase behaviour. Promotions, clear value propositions and effective merchandising are expected to remain important in influence purchasing decisions as customers continue to shop with greater intent and browse less
About Kepler’s Retail Market Index
- Kepler’s Retail Market Index provides the most insightful and most timely view of retail industry performance across both Australia and New Zealand
- The index is based on anonymised data from Kepler’s Retail Foot Traffic Solution customers, primarily non-food specialty retailers
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