Australian Retail Performance a Tale of Two Halves in March
Monthly KRI Summary
Discover key insights in the latest Australian Kepler Retail Market Index for March 2026.
Comparison Period: The following insights are based on comparing the five-week retail month of March this year (23rd February – 29th March 2026) to the same period last year (24th February – 30th March 2025).
March reflects two distinct trading periods that drove differing performance across the month.
- During the first three weeks (23rd February to 15th March 2026), YoY performance appeared artificially strong due the Cyclone Alfred weather event, which resulted in temporary store closures and reduced trading hours across South-East Queensland and Northern NSW in 2025
- In the latter two weeks (16th March to 29th March 2026), more challenging macroeconomic and global political conditions contributed to a substantial decline in consumer confidence and retail sales. Key factors included the 17th of March interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, alongside the rapid increase in fuel prices throughout the month
Foot Traffic Trends:
- During the first three weeks, passer-by traffic increased +5.6% YoY. This was driven primarily by significant growth across Queensland, with New South Wales also contributing due to the Cyclone Alfred weather event in 2025. Inside traffic also increased +1.7% YoY over the same period
- In the latter two weeks, Passer-by traffic declined -1.4%, while inside traffic dropped more sharply by -4.5%, which could reflect the impact of higher petrol prices reducing more spontaneous shopping trips
Sales Conversion and Transactions Performance:
- During the first three weeks, sales conversion and transactions remained relatively stable, declining slightly by -0.9% and increasing by +0.8% respectively
- In the final two weeks, sales conversion declined by -4.7% YoY, with transactions falling more sharply by -8.8%, reflecting the impact of ongoing global pressures on consumer spending behaviour
Average Transaction Values (ATVs):
- In the first three weeks, the Average Transaction Value (ATV) decreased by -0.9% YoY, while in the final two weeks ATV declined further by -1.7%
Sales Performance:
- During the first three weeks, sales remained relatively flat at -0.1% YoY for the Cyclone Alfred Period, marking an improvement from February’s -1.0% YoY result
- During the latter two weeks, sales saw a significant decline, with total sales falling by -10.3%. These weaker trading conditions were likely driven by broader economic pressures, with consumers becoming more cautious around discretionary spending
- As a result, the stronger performance in the first three weeks partially offset the softer latter period, with overall sales performance declining by -3.7%
About Kepler’s Retail Market Index
- Kepler’s Retail Market Index provides the most insightful and most timely view of retail industry performance across both Australia and New Zealand
- The index is based on anonymised data from Kepler’s Retail Foot Traffic Solution customers, primarily non-food specialty retailers
Want to know more? Get in touch or subscribe to the Kepler Retail Market Index
