Sales Conversion Recovers Through October as Foot Traffic Holds Steady
Monthly KRI Summary
Discover key insights in the latest Australian Kepler Retail Market Index for October 2026.
Comparison Period:
- The following insights compare the four-week retail month of October 2026 (28th of September – 25th of October 2026) with the equivalent period last year (29th of September – 26th of October 2025)
- While the most recent interest rate hike itself did not affect October trading, the expectation of it was likely. This, alongside inflation running at 4.3% and petrol prices well above a year ago, means retailers should plan peak trading on the basis that household budgets are tighter than they were last year
Summary:
- Retailers experienced two distinct patterns in October.
The more common pattern was steady or growing Inside Traffic alongside a decline in Sales Conversion. Stores held their share of passing traffic, but a smaller proportion of those who entered completed a purchase. This was the pattern in Queensland and in Victoria & Tasmania
The second pattern was a decline in Inside Traffic with Sales Conversion falling as well, so there was no offset. This was the pattern in NSW & ACT and in Western Australia - Sales Conversion has improved as the month has progressed. It opened with a decline of -3.9% YoY and closed at mostly flat at -0.3%, its best weekly reading since late August. The task for November is to carry that recovery into peak trading rather than let it reset
- Roster to the hours where Inside Traffic is actually arriving rather than to last year’s pattern
- Keep queueing waits short at the point of decision, and make sure key lines stay in stock so shoppers are not sent away empty-handed
- Note also that the Victorian state election falls on Saturday 28th November, the day after Black Friday, which has no equivalent in last year’s comparison week and will affect Victorian trading patterns on the biggest weekend of the year
Foot Traffic Trends:
- Passer-by were flat at 0.0% YoY in October, in line with the three-month average of +0.1% YoY
- Inside Traffic was also flat at -0.2% YoY, ending two consecutive months of growth and sitting behind the three-month average of +1.7% YoY. Shopfront Conversion was unchanged at -0.2% YoY, against a three-month average of +1.6% YoY. Stores held their share of passing traffic rather than growing it, as they had through August and September
- Queensland and Victoria & Tasmania both grew Inside Traffic and Shopfront Conversion, with Queensland again recording the greatest improvement. NSW & ACT and Western Australia both declined on each measure
Sales Conversion Performance:
- Sales Conversion fell -2.4% YoY in October, a third consecutive monthly decline, and remained behind the three-month average of -1.8% YoY
- Dwell Time fell -4.1% YoY, its weakest month of the quarter, against a three-month average of -3.0% YoY. Shoppers are spending less time in store than a year ago, and the gap has widened each month since August
Average Transaction Values (ATVs):
- Average Transaction Value fell -0.7% YoY, compared with -1.0% in September and a three-month average of -0.5% YoY. The decline was driven by units rather than price
Sales Performance:
- Sales fell -3.3% YoY in October, with transactions down -2.6%. This was below the three-month average of -0.6% YoY and the steepest monthly decline of the quarter
- Traffic was not the constraint this month. Passer-by and Inside Traffic were both flat year on year, so the sales decline came from conversion and basket value rather than from fewer people
- Used Goods led sales growth, with Outdoor / Travel, Premium / Designer Lifestyle, Watch & Jewellery and Gifting also in growth. Personal Care & Wellness again recorded the greatest decline in sales, driven by a fall in Inside Traffic, extending a run that now stretches back to mid-September
About Kepler’s Retail Market Index
- Kepler’s Retail Market Index provides the most insightful and most timely view of retail industry performance across both Australia and New Zealand
- The index is based on anonymised data from Kepler’s Retail Foot Traffic Solution customers, primarily non-food specialty retailers
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