Inside Traffic Grows Every Week of September as Conversion Becomes the Opportunity
Monthly KRI Summary
Discover key insights in the latest Australian Kepler Retail Market Index for September 2026.
Comparison Period:
- The following insights compare the five-week retail month of September 2026 (24th of August – 27th of September 2026) with the equivalent period last year (25th of August – 28th of September 2025)
- September was another clean trading month. Father’s Day, the AFL Grand Final and the Grand Final Friday public holiday all fell within the month in both years, while the spring school holidays began the day after the month closed in both years. As a result, the comparison is not distorted by calendar shifts
- The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, two days after the month closed. The rise itself therefore did not affect September trading, but anticipation of a rate rise had already put pressure on consumer confidence
Summary:
- Retailers experienced two distinct patterns that resulted in lower overall sales value.
The more common pattern was an increase in Shopfront Conversion alongside a decline in Sales Conversion. More customers entered stores, but fewer completed a purchase
The second pattern was a decline in Shopfront Conversion, while those who did enter stores purchased with greater intent, resulting in stronger sales conversion - The key focus for the months ahead is Sales Conversion, which started the month relatively flat before declining each week thereafter
- Reviewing staffing coverage against the hours where Inside Traffic has actually grown, rather than relying on historical patterns. Then assess queue and fitting room wait times at the point of decision, whether floor staff engage early rather than after interest has waned, and whether the availability of key lines is sending customers away empty-handed
Foot Traffic Trends:
- Passers-by were steady at -0.3% YoY in September, in line with the three-month average of +0.1% YoY
- Inside Traffic rose +2.9% YoY, marking a second consecutive month of growth and exceeding the three-month average of +1.9% YoY. Shopfront Conversion increased +3.3% YoY, its strongest month of the quarter, indicating that stores attracted a materially greater share of Passers-by inside than a year ago
- Momentum built rather than faded. Inside Traffic grew +1.7%, +1.7%, +3.2%, +2.4% and +5.4% YoY across the five weeks, finishing the month at its strongest level. Shopfront Conversion increased every week of the month
- Store visitation grew in every region except WA, while QLD again recorded the greatest improvement. Shopfront Conversion increased across all five regions
Sales Conversion Performance:
- Sales Conversion fell -2.3% YoY in September, marking a second consecutive monthly decline and falling further behind the three-month average of -0.8% YoY
- The decline deepened week by week, as it did in August. Conversion opened the month at -0.2% YoY, then moved to -0.3%, -1.7%, -3.9% and -5.1% across the following four weeks. The run of weekly declines now stretches back to early August
- Dwell Time was also down -2.4% YoY. More shoppers entered stores, spent less time inside, and fewer completed a purchase
Average Transaction Values (ATVs):
- Average Transaction Value fell -1.0% YoY, compared with +0.3% in August and the three-month average of +0.8% YoY. The decline was driven by units rather than price. Items per Sale fell while Average Item Price rose, indicating that retailers are achieving higher prices per item but losing overall basket size
Sales Performance:
- Sales fell -0.5% YoY in September, while transactions increased +0.5%. This was below the three-month average sales growth of +1.9% YoY, although sales remained in growth over the three-month period
- Stores attracted materially more traffic but converted less of it. Despite Inside Traffic growing +2.9% YoY, transaction growth was limited to +0.5%. Had Sales Conversion simply remained flat, September would have delivered sales growth on the same footfall
- At the category level, Premium / Designer Lifestyle led sales growth on the back of strong Inside Traffic, with Apparel also recording growth for the same reason. Personal Care & Wellness again experienced the greatest YoY decline in sales, driven by a decrease in Inside Traffic, while Household Goods and Used Goods also recorded lower sales
About Kepler’s Retail Market Index
- Kepler’s Retail Market Index provides the most insightful and most timely view of retail industry performance across both Australia and New Zealand
- The index is based on anonymised data from Kepler’s Retail Foot Traffic Solution customers, primarily non-food specialty retailers
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