November 30, 2022

Black Friday 2022 Review – Retail sales($) increasing despite declines in traffic

Kepler delivers a 3 part review of Black Friday week for 2022 using the Kepler Retail Index (KRI) – A like-for-like comparison of 1600+ stores across Australia.

Traffic & Sales

Passerby Traffic

-25% vs 2019

-7% vs 2021


-37% vs 2019

-2% vs 2021


+44% vs 2019

+11% vs 2021

Sales ($)

+11% vs 2019

+2% vs 2021

  • Traffic remains stubbornly low
  • Inside Traffic is extremely low, and declining vs 2021
  • Whilst sales ($) grew, they did not meet retailer expectations


Two positives but also something to keep an eye on


+49% vs 2019

-8% vs 2021

Average Transaction

+19% vs 2019

-3% vs 2021


-7% vs 2019

+5% vs 2021

  • Sales Conversion Rate (SCR) and Average Transaction Values (ATV) performing extremely well vs 2019 but now dropping vs 2021

  • Transaction volumes are declining vs 2021, traffic impacts now showing through

Key takeaways

  1. Shopfront Conversion (SFC) is falling vs prior years, this is a key metric for retail survival. Tactics to build SFC need to be put in place:
    • Shopfront engagements relevant to customers
    • Inviting store navigation and line of sight through stores
    • Give passerby traffic a compelling reason to enter
  2. Passerby traffic remains stubbornly low, this is what a retailer pays rent for. Understanding the movement of traffic in the centre and past your doors is vital:
    • Create valuations of stores based on passing traffic
    • Understand which stores are able to generate more SFC by their structure and position as well as your store execution
    • Enter negotiations with landlords knowing your true cost of traffic and long term trends past your doors, and for centres as a whole