Discover key insights in the latest KRI (Kepler Retail Market Index) for the Month Ending 31st March 2024.

Store Traffic Bounces Back But Sales Conversion Falls in Q1 2024

• March has proved to be the most challenging month of calendar year 2024 for retailers, partly driven by weak Easter trade.
• March saw passer-by traffic down 12.6% and Inside traffic down 4.4% on last year. Sales conversion rates were more favourable than in January and February but were still down 4.8% on March last year. Sales were down 7.9% on March last year, higher than the declines seen in January (-7.0%) and February (-3.4%).
• However, there is a slight silver lining for retailers when we look across Q1. Inside traffic across the quarter is the same as Q1 2023 and is actually up 1.4% on Q1 2022. What is really hampering retailer performance is the falling sales conversion rate (percentage of Inside Traffic that makes a purchase). Sales Conversion rates have fallen by 6.5% compared with Q1 2023 driving a 6.3% decline in sales (sales are down 9.8% on Q1 2022)
• Our market sales forecast for Q1 2024 predicted a decline of between 1.0% to 5.4%. The actuals for January and February were in line with our estimates but a weaker than expected March drove a Q1 decline of 6.3% versus 2023, exceeding our pessimistic estimate by 0.9%.
• Our market sales forecast for Q1 2024 predicted a decline of between 1.0% to 5.4%. The actuals for January and February were in line with our estimates but a weaker than expected March drove a Q1 decline of 6.3% versus 2023, exceeding our pessimistic estimate by 0.9%.
• Comparing the week of Easter this year versus last year, the results are not what retailers were hoping for. Lack of foot traffic was the key issue. Passer-by traffic was down 16.9% and Inside store traffic was down 12.3% on the week of Easter last year. Lower Sales Conversion Rates were offset by higher average transaction values. As a result, the 12.3% drop in store traffic translated into a 11.7% drop in Sales.
• You will also notice we have launched a new look report. This report provides a more graphical view of the data and provides more insight into the longer-term trends. The top waterfall chart shows the impact each customer-path-to-purchase component has on the year-on-year sales result. The lower charts, show the year-on-year movements of each metric independently across different time periods.

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